Identification of Time Delays in COVID-19 Data

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new optimization method using delay-differential equations to identify time delays in COVID-19 data, which are crucial for accurate modeling and intervention planning.

Contribution

A novel, generalizable optimization technique for detecting time delays in dynamical systems, demonstrated on COVID-19 data.

Findings

Effective identification of time delays in COVID-19 datasets

Applicable to a broad class of dynamical systems with delays

Enhances the accuracy of epidemiological models

Abstract

COVID-19 data released by public health authorities features the presence of notable time-delays, corresponding to the difference between actual time of infection and identification of infection. These delays have several causes, including the natural incubation period of the virus, availability and speed of testing facilities, population demographics, and testing center capacity, among others. Such delays have important ramifications for both the mathematical modeling of COVID-19 contagion and the design and evaluation of intervention strategies. In the present work, we introduce a novel optimization technique for the identification of time delays in COVID-19 data, making use of a delay-differential equation model. The proposed method is general in nature and may be applied not only to COVID-19, but for generic dynamical systems in which time delays may be present.