Model estimates for contribution of natural and anthropogenic CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ emissions into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate changes in the 21st century

TL;DR

This study assesses how natural and human-made greenhouse gas emissions from Russia, China, USA, and Canada influence global climate change in the 21st century, highlighting the importance of climate conditions and natural fluxes.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of the contributions of natural and anthropogenic CO₂ and CH₄ emissions from these countries under various scenarios, emphasizing the changing role of natural fluxes.

Findings

Terrestrial CO₂ uptake decreases in the second half of the century.

Methane emissions increase significantly across regions.

Natural fluxes can accelerate warming by the century's end.

Abstract

The contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century has been assessed. It is shown that the consideration of the changes in climate conditions can affect the impact indicators of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, especially over long time horizons. In making decisions, it is necessary to take into account that the role of natural fluxes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from the terrestrial ecosystems can change. For all the countries considered, the uptake of CO$_2$ by terrestrial ecosystems under all scenarios of anthropogenic impact begins to decrease in the second half of the 21st century, so its stabilizing effect may gradually lose importance. At the same time, methane emissions in all of the considered regions are increasing significantly. The net effect of these greenhouse gas natural fluxes in some cases can even lead to warming acceleration by the end of the 21 st century.