TL;DR
This paper analyzes a game of chance from Marc Elsberg's thriller 'GREED' using probability tools, revealing a threshold phenomenon that distinguishes winning from losing scenarios through numerical simulations.
Contribution
It provides a detailed probabilistic analysis of a specific gambling game and its variants, highlighting a threshold effect between profit and loss zones.
Findings
Identification of a threshold phenomenon in the game
Numerical illustrations using Python simulations
Insights into the transition from profit to loss areas
Abstract
A (possibly illegal) game of chance, which is described in Chapter 14 of Marc Elsberg's thriller "GREED", seems to offer an excellent chance of winning. However, as the gambling starts and evolves over several rounds, the actual experience of the vast majority of the gamblers in a pub is strikingly different. We provide an analysis of this specific game and several of its variants by elementary tools of probability. Thus we also encounter an interesting threshold phenomenon, which is related to the transition from a profit zone to a loss area. Our arguments are motivated and illustrated by numerical calculations with Python.
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