Do Firearm Markets Comply with Firearm Restrictions? How the Massachusetts Assault Weapons Ban Enforcement Notice Changed Firearm Sales

TL;DR

This study examines the impact of Massachusetts's 2016 enforcement notice on assault weapon sales, revealing a sharp initial increase followed by a significant decline, indicating mixed effects on compliance and market behavior.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence on how legal enforcement notices influence firearm market dynamics and compliance with restrictions.

Findings

Initial assault rifle sales increased by 560% after the enforcement notice.

Subsequently, assault rifle sales decreased by 58% over three weeks.

Assault weapon sales in 2017 remained 64-66% lower than pre-notice levels.

Abstract

How well do firearm markets comply with firearm restrictions? The Massachusetts Attorney General issued an Enforcement Notice in 2016 to announce a new interpretation of the key phrase "copies and duplicates" in the state's assault weapons ban. The Enforcement Notice increased assault rifle sales by 1,349 (+560%) within five days, followed by a reduction of 211 (-58%) over the next three weeks. Assault rifle sales were 64-66% lower in 2017 than in comparable earlier periods, suggesting that the Enforcement Notice reduced assault weapon sales but also that many banned weapons continued to be sold.