Analysis of Sectoral Profitability of the Indian Stock Market Using an LSTM Regression Model

TL;DR

This paper develops an LSTM-based predictive model to forecast stock prices and analyze sectoral profitability in the Indian stock market, demonstrating high accuracy and practical trading insights.

Contribution

It introduces an optimized LSTM regression model for stock price prediction and sectoral profitability analysis in the Indian market, a novel application in this context.

Findings

Model achieves high prediction accuracy.

Sectoral profitability varies significantly.

LSTM effectively captures stock price dynamics.

Abstract

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.