Planning for net zero by 2050, what HVAC system interventions will today's code minimum commercial buildings require?

TL;DR

This paper evaluates HVAC retrofit strategies for code-minimum commercial buildings across the US to achieve net zero energy and carbon emissions by 2050, emphasizing electrification and heat pump technology.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive analysis of HVAC interventions tailored to different states and climate zones, guiding the transition towards net zero buildings.

Findings

Electrification via heat pumps significantly reduces energy use.

Interventions vary by climate zone and current code level.

The study identifies cost-effective pathways for decarbonizing commercial HVAC systems.

Abstract

Heating, Ventilation and Air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for approximately 40% of the total energy used by buildings in the USA. To reduce this consumption States enforce minimum energy codes that currently range from strict (ASHRAE 90.1-2016) to relaxed (ASHRAE 90.1-2007) with some states following no particular standard. To reach as close as possible to net zero carbon and energy, each statewide energy code requires different levels of interventions for each code minimum building. This paper presents a collection of potential HVAC retrofits to transition each State's current code minimum buildings towards the goal of net zero to achieve a carbon free future by 2050. The study shall use a large array of code minimum criteria and climate zones covering the 48 contiguous United States to determine the most successful interventions at reducing the energy use of buildings meeting today's energy codes. Office use type has been selected for the study as they account for 18% of total buildings and close to 19% of the total commercial floorspace. A number of interventions will be applied to this use type that will vary based on current code and climate zone; however, a common theme will be electrification through the use of heat pump technology. Each intervention will be scored based on energy and carbon savings, along with level of difficulty and cost. The study not only provides a comprehensive transition guideline toward the net zero energy and carbon but also predicts the future project opportunities.