Spatiotemporal Impact Assessment of Hurricanes on Electric Power Systems

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Monte Carlo simulation framework to assess the spatiotemporal impact of hurricanes on power grids, aiding in resilience planning by analyzing load disconnections during hurricane events.

Contribution

It presents a novel probabilistic approach combining hurricane scenario sampling and line fragility models to evaluate power grid vulnerability over time and space.

Findings

Losses spike during intense hurricane wind phases.

Impact saturates as hurricane intensity decreases.

Framework aids in proactive resilience planning.

Abstract

Almost 90% of the major power outages in the US are caused due to hurricanes. Due to the highly uncertain nature of hurricanes in both spatial and temporal dimensions, it is essential to quantify the effect of such hurricanes on a power grid. In this paper, we provide a Monte-Carlo-based framework in which several hurricane scenarios and their impact on a power grid are analyzed in spatiotemporal dimensions. The hurricane simulations are performed using samples from previously occurred hurricanes in the US whereas probabilistic assessment of the transmission lines is performed through line fragility model. Finally, a loss metric based on the amount of load disconnected due to hurricanes traveling inland is calculated for each time step. The simulation is performed on ACTIVSg2000: 2000-bus synthetic Texas grid while mapping the transmission lines of the test case on the geographical footprint of Texas. The simulation results show that the loss increases significantly for a few time steps when the wind field of a hurricane is intense and almost saturates when the intensity of the hurricane decays while traversing further. The proposed analysis can provide some insights for proactive planning strategies on improving the resilience of the power grid.