Vaccination rates modulate the correlation between country latitude and covid-19 surge date arising this autumn 2021

TL;DR

This study investigates how vaccination rates influence the relationship between country latitude and COVID-19 surge timing, suggesting vitamin D deficiency may impact vaccine effectiveness and surge patterns.

Contribution

It introduces a novel adjustment of latitude based on vaccination rates to reveal underlying correlations, highlighting vitamin D's potential role in COVID-19 surges.

Findings

Weak correlation between surge date and latitude in 2021

Adjusted latitude based on vaccination rates reveals strong correlation

Vitamin D deficiency may impair vaccination effectiveness

Abstract

A clear linear correlation of covid-19 surge date with country latitude was observed last autumn 2020, but not with temperature, nor with humidity, pointing the seasonal vitamin D status decline as a contributor factor. Well vaccinated European countries are this autumn 2021 repeating explosive surges. We aim to evaluate the potential link between surge date, country latitude and population vaccination rate. Only a weak correlation was observed this autumn. However, after shifting the country latitude towards the south proportionally to its vaccination rate, a clear linear correlation was retrieved. This observation, joined to other ones, supports that vitamin D deficiency could reduce the vaccination efficiency. There is no objective benefit to hold a vitamin D deficiency. Thus, while European populations are undergoing the seasonal autumn-winter vitamin D status decline, it already makes sense to screen the elder people vitamin D status and fix individual deficiencies.