Episodic deluges in simulated hothouse climates

TL;DR

This study uses high-resolution simulations to explore how radiative heating in hothouse climates alters the hydrologic cycle, leading to oscillatory precipitation patterns, increased cloud cover, and potential climate feedbacks.

Contribution

It provides the first explicit modeling of convection in hothouse climates, revealing a transition to a relaxation oscillator regime driven by radiative heating.

Findings

Hydrologic cycle shifts to a relaxation oscillator with intense bursts of precipitation.

Cloud cover significantly increases in hothouse regimes.

Climate feedback becomes transiently positive, indicating potential instability.

Abstract

Earth's distant past and potentially its future include extremely warm "hothouse" climate states, but little is known about how the atmosphere behaves in such states. One distinguishing characteristic of hothouse climates is that they feature lower-tropospheric radiative heating, rather than cooling, due to the closing of the water vapor infrared window regions. Previous work has suggested that this could lead to temperature inversions and significant changes in cloud cover, but no previous modeling of the hothouse regime has resolved convective-scale turbulent air motions and cloud cover directly, thus leaving many questions about hothouse radiative heating unanswered. Here, we conduct simulations that explicitly resolve convection and find that lower-tropospheric radiative heating in hothouse climates causes the hydrologic cycle to shift from a quasi-steady regime to a "relaxation oscillator" regime, in which precipitation occurs in short and intense outbursts separated by multi-day dry spells. The transition to the oscillatory regime is accompanied by strongly enhanced local precipitation fluxes, a significant increase in cloud cover, and a transiently positive (unstable) climate feedback parameter. Our results indicate that hothouse climates may feature a novel form of "temporal" convective self-organization, with implications for both cloud coverage and erosion processes.