Global fossil carbon emissions rebound near pre-COVID-19 levels

TL;DR

Global fossil CO2 emissions decreased significantly in 2020 due to COVID-19 but are projected to rebound near pre-pandemic levels in 2021, with notable increases in China and India, especially from coal and natural gas.

Contribution

This study provides updated projections of 2021 fossil CO2 emissions, highlighting the rebound to near 2019 levels and regional differences post-COVID-19.

Findings

Emissions in 2021 are nearly back to 2019 levels.

China's emissions are expected to increase by 7% in 2021.

Coal and natural gas emissions are rising above 2019 levels.

Abstract

Global fossil CO2 emissions in 2020 decreased 5.4%, from 36.7 Gt CO2 in 2019 to 34.8 Gt CO2 in 2020, an unprecedented decline of ~1.9 Gt CO2. We project that global fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 will rebound 4.9% (4.1% to 5.7%) compared to 2020 to 36.4 Gt CO2, returning nearly to 2019 emission levels of 36.7 Gt CO2. Emissions in China are expected to be 7% higher in 2021 than in 2019 (reaching 11.1 Gt CO2) and only slightly higher in India (a 3% increase in 2021 relative to 2019, and reaching 2.7 Gt CO2). In contrast, projected 2021 emissions in the United States (5.1 Gt CO2), European Union (2.8 Gt CO2), and rest of the world (14.8 Gt CO2, in aggregate) remain below 2019 levels. For fuels, CO2 emissions from coal in 2021 are expected to rebound above 2019 levels to 14.7 Gt CO2, primarily because of increased coal use in China, and will remain only slightly (0.8%) below their previous peak in 2014. Emissions from natural gas use should also rise above 2019 levels in 2021, continuing a steady trend of rising gas use that dates back at least sixty years. Only CO2 emissions from oil remain well below 2019 levels in 2021.