Integrated Assessment Modeling of Korea 2050 Carbon Neutrality Technology Pathways

TL;DR

This study uses integrated assessment modeling to evaluate Korea's 2050 carbon neutrality pathways, emphasizing rapid energy transition, technology deployment, and policy implications for achieving net-zero emissions.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive scenario analysis highlighting the critical role of renewables, CCS, and nuclear power in Korea's decarbonization strategy.

Findings

Rapid energy transition is essential for Korea's 2050 carbon neutrality.

Nuclear power reduces the need for extensive renewables and CCS.

Limited CCS availability increases policy costs and deployment challenges.

Abstract

This integrated assessment modeling research analyzes what Korea's 2050 carbon neutrality would require for the national energy system and the role of the power sector concerning the availability of critical mitigation technologies. Our scenario-based assessments show that Korea's current policy falls short of what the nation's carbon-neutrality ambition would require. Across all technology scenarios examined in this study, extensive and rapid energy system transition is imperative, requiring the large-scale deployment of renewables and carbon capture & storage (CCS) early on and negative emission technologies (NETs) by the mid-century. Importantly, rapid decarbonization of the power sector that goes with rapid electrification of end-uses seems to be a robust national decarbonization strategy. Furthermore, we contextualize our net-zero scenario results using policy costs, requirements for natural resources, and the expansion rate of zero-carbon technologies. We find that the availability of nuclear power lowers the required expansion rate of renewables and CCS, alleviating any stress on terrestrial and geological systems. By contrast, the limited availability of CCS without nuclear power necessarily demands a very high penetration of renewables and significantly high policy compliance costs, which would decrease the feasibility of achieving the carbon neutrality target.