L\'evy-noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced Transitions in the Ghil-Sellers Energy Balance Model

TL;DR

This study compares how Gaussian and Lévy noise influence climate state transitions in the Ghil-Sellers energy balance model, revealing fundamental differences in transition times and paths, especially under weak noise conditions.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed analysis of Lévy noise effects on high-dimensional climate models, contrasting with well-studied Gaussian noise impacts, and introduces new insights into transition path behaviors.

Findings

Gaussian noise yields exponential residence time scaling (Kramers law).

Lévy noise results in power-law residence time scaling with exponent -α.

Transition paths differ significantly between Gaussian and Lévy noise, especially in their separation and boundary crossing behavior.

Abstract

We study the impact of applying stochastic forcing to the Ghil-Sellers energy balance climate model in the form of a fluctuating solar irradiance. Through numerical simulations, we explore the noise-induced transitions between the competing warm and snowball climate states. We consider multiplicative stochastic forcing driven by Gaussian and $\alpha$-stable L\'evy - $\alpha\in(0,2)$ - noise laws, examine the statistics of transition times, and estimate most probable transition paths. While the Gaussian noise case has been carefully studied in a plethora of investigations on metastable systems, much less is known about the L\'evy case, especially in the case of high- and infinite-dimensional systems. In the weak noise limit, the expected residence time in each metastable state scales in a fundamentally different way in the Gaussian vs. L\'evy noise case with respect to the intensity of the noise. In the former case, the classical Kramers-like exponential law is recovered. In the latter case, power laws are found, with the exponent equal to $-\alpha$, in apparent agreement with rigorous results obtained for additive noise in a related - yet different - reaction-diffusion equation as well as in simpler models. This can be better understood by treating the L\'evy noise as a compound Poisson process. The transition paths are studied in a projection of the state space and remarkable differences are observed between the two different types of noise. The snowball-to-warm and the warm-to-snowball most probable transition path cross at the single unstable edge state on the basin boundary. In the case of L\'evy noise, the most probable transition paths in the two directions are wholly separated, as transitions apparently take place via the closest basin boundary region to the outgoing attractor. This property can be better elucidated by considering singular perturbations to the solar irradiance.