Losing the battle over best-science guidance early in a crisis: Covid-19 and beyond

TL;DR

This paper examines how exposure to best-science guidance during crises like Covid-19 is uneven and influenced by complex social dynamics, leading to challenges in effective communication and intervention.

Contribution

It uncovers the multi-sided battle over science guidance exposure on social media and introduces a mathematical model to understand and predict these dynamics.

Findings

Majority of the public moves towards extreme communities before official pandemic alerts.

Facebook's promotion of guidance misses key audience segments due to hidden heterogeneity.

The model can predict tipping points and responses to interventions.

Abstract

Ensuring widespread public exposure to best-science guidance is crucial in a crisis, e.g. Covid-19, climate change. Mapping the emitter-receiver dynamics of Covid-19 guidance among 87 million Facebook users, we uncover a multi-sided battle over exposure that gets lost well before the pandemic's official announcement. By the time Covid-19 vaccines emerge, the mainstream majority -- including many parenting communities -- have moved even closer to more extreme communities. The hidden heterogeneity explains why Facebook's own promotion of best-science guidance also missed key audience segments. A simple mathematical model reproduces these exposure dynamics at the system level. Our findings can be used to tailor guidance at scale while accounting for individual diversity, and to predict tipping point behavior and system-level responses to interventions.