On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures

TL;DR

This paper derives an effective SIR model under stationary isolation, showing how constant parameters can describe infection dynamics and applying it to real-world countries to validate its predictions.

Contribution

It introduces a derivation of an effective SIR model with constant parameters under stationary isolation, including retardation effects, and provides predictive methods validated on real epidemic data.

Findings

Effective SIR model with constant parameters describes infection dynamics.

The model accurately fits infection curves for countries with stationary isolation.

Inclusion of retardation effects improves model accuracy.

Abstract

The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters should describe the infection process. Then, a derivation of this property is presented, assuming that the statistical fluctuations in the number of infection and recovered cases are disregarded. This effective SIR model shows a reduced population number and a constant $\beta$ parameter. The effects of also including the retardation between recovery and infection process is also considered. Next, it is shown that any solution of the effective SIR also solves the linear problem to which the SIR equations reduce when the total population is much larger than the number of the infected cases. Then, it is also argued that this equivalence follows for a specific contagious parameter $\beta(t)$ which time dependence is analytically derived here. Then, two equivalent predictive calculational methods for the infection dynamics under stationary isolation measures are proposed. The results represent a solutions for the known and challenging problem of defining the time dependence of the contagion parameter, when the SIR parameter $N$ is assumed to be the whole population number. Finally, the model is applied to describe the known infection curves for countries that already had passed the epidemic process under strict stationary isolation measures. The cases of Iceland, New Zealand, Korea and Cuba were considered. Although, non subject to stationary isolation measures the cases of U.S.A. and Mexico are also examined due to their interest. The results support the argued validity of SIR model including retardation.