Open-data based carbon emission intensity signals for electricity generation in European countries -- top down vs. bottom up approach

TL;DR

This paper introduces a bottom-up method to derive detailed, country-specific carbon emission factors for European electricity generation using plant-level data, and compares these with traditional top-down estimates.

Contribution

The study presents a novel bottom-up approach for calculating emission factors based on plant-specific data, enhancing transparency and replicability compared to existing methods.

Findings

Derived 42 technology and country-specific emission factors.

Compared bottom-up and top-down emission intensity estimates.

Demonstrated the method's transparency and adaptability.

Abstract

Dynamic grid emission factors provide a temporally resolved signal about the carbon intensity of electricity generation in the power system. Since actual carbon dioxide emission measurements are usually lacking, such a signal must be derived from system-specific emission factors combined with power generation time series. We present a bottom-up method that allows deriving per country and per technology emission factors for European countries based on plant specific power generation time series and reported emissions from the European emissions trading mechanism. We have matched, 595 fossil generation units and their respective annual emissions. In 2018, these power plants supplied 717 TWh of electricity to the grid, representing approximately 50 % of power generation from fossil fuels. Based on this dataset, 42 individual technology and country-specific emission factors are derived. The resulting values for historical per country carbon intensity of electricity generation are compared with corresponding results from a top-down approach, which uses statistical data on emissions and power generation on national scales. All calculations are based on publicly available data, such that the analysis is transparent and the method can be replicated, adjusted and expanded in a flexible way.