Future destabilisation of Titan as a result of Saturn's tilting

TL;DR

This paper investigates how Titan's potential migration and Saturn's increasing obliquity could lead to system instability, possibly causing Titan's ejection or collision, and significantly altering Saturn's obliquity over billions of years.

Contribution

It introduces an analytical model of planet-satellite dynamics near the Laplace radius during secular spin-orbit resonance, revealing a critical point leading to potential system destabilization.

Findings

System evolves towards a critical point at 90° obliquity near the Laplace radius.

Titan and Saturn may become unstable in 1-10 billion years if migration continues.

Destabilization could result in Titan's ejection or collision, and Saturn's obliquity reaching 90°.

Abstract

Context: As a result of Titan's migration and Saturn's probable capture in secular spin-orbit resonance, recent works show that Saturn's obliquity could be steadily increasing today and may reach large values in the next billions of years. Satellites around high-obliquity planets are known to be unstable near their Laplace radius, but the approximations used so far are invalidated in this regime. Aims: We aim to investigate the behaviour of a planet and its satellite when the satellite crosses its Laplace radius while the planet is locked in secular spin-orbit resonance. Methods: We expand on previous works and revisit the concept of Laplace surface. We use it to build an averaged analytical model that couples the planetary spin-axis and satellite dynamics. Results: We show that the dynamics is organised around a critical point, S1, at which the phase-space structure is singular, located at 90{\deg} obliquity and near the Laplace radius. If the spin-axis precession rate of the planet is maintained fixed by a resonance while the satellite migrates outwards or inwards, then S1 acts as an attractor towards which the system is forced to evolve. When it reaches the vicinity of S1, the entire system breaks down, either because the planet is expelled from the resonance or because the satellite is ejected or collides into the planet. Conclusions: Provided that Titan's migration is not halted in the future, Titan and Saturn may reach instability between a few gigayears and several tens of gigayears from now, depending on Titan's migration rate. The evolution would destabilise Titan and drive Saturn towards an obliquity of 90{\deg}. Our findings may have important consequences for Uranus. They also provide a straightforward mechanism for producing transiting exoplanets with a face-on massive ring, a configuration that is often put forward to explain some super-puff exoplanets.