Re-entry prediction and demisability analysis for the atmospheric disposal of geosynchronous satellites

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the natural re-entry of geosynchronous satellites on disposal trajectories, assessing risks and proposing a methodology to evaluate re-entry conditions and casualty risks for space debris management.

Contribution

It introduces a methodology linking long-term trajectory propagation with re-entry risk assessment, specifically focusing on GSO satellite disposal and demisability analysis.

Findings

Re-entry within 20 years is feasible for certain disposal trajectories.

Casualty risk exceeds the 10^-4 threshold for the studied satellite.

Further measures are needed to ensure compliance with safety thresholds.

Abstract

The paper presents a re-entry analysis of Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) satellites on disposal trajectories that enhance the effects of the Earth oblateness and lunisolar perturbations. These types of trajectories can lead to a natural re-entry of the spacecraft within 20 years. An analysis was performed to characterise the entry conditions for these satellites and the risk they can pose for people on the ground if disposal via re-entry is used. The paper first proposes a methodology to interface the long-term propagation used to study the evolution of the disposal trajectories and the destructive re-entry simulations used to assess the spacecraft casualty risk. This is achieved by revisiting the concept of overshoot boundary. The paper also presents the demisability and casualty risk analysis for a representative spacecraft configuration, showing that the casualty risk is greater than the 10$^{-4}$ threshold and that further actions should be taken to improve the compliance of these satellites in case of disposal via re-entry is used.