The Quality of the 2020 Census: An Independent Assessment of Census Bureau Activities Critical to Data Quality

TL;DR

This independent assessment of the 2020 Census evaluates the quality of census operations and identifies increased reliance on higher-risk activities compared to 2010, but cannot conclusively determine if data quality was lower.

Contribution

The paper provides a systematic evaluation of census operations' quality and risk factors using detailed operational data, highlighting changes from the 2010 census.

Findings

Higher reliance on risky activities in 2020 than 2010

Potential increase in error risk in 2020 census operations

Insufficient data to confirm lower quality of apportionment counts

Abstract

This report summarizes major findings from an independent evaluation of 2020 census operations. The American Statistical Association 2020 Census Quality Indicators Task Force selected the authors to conduct the evaluation using nonpublic operations data provided by the Census Bureau. The evaluation focused on the quality of state-level population counts released by the Census Bureau for congressional apportionment. The authors first partitioned the census enumeration process into five operation phases. Within each phase, one or more activities considered to be critical to census data quality were identified. Operational data from each activity were then analyzed to assess the risk of error, particularly as they related to similar activities in the 2010 census. Overall, the evaluation found that census operations relied on higher risk activities at a higher rate in 2020 than in 2010, suggesting that the risk of error may be higher in 2020 than in 2010. However, the available data were insufficient to determine whether the apportionment counts are of lower quality in 2020 than in 2010.