Marginally calibrated response distributions for end-to-end learning in autonomous driving

TL;DR

This paper introduces a scalable method for estimating calibrated uncertainty in end-to-end autonomous driving models, enabling reliable prediction densities and improved safety measures.

Contribution

It develops an efficient variational inference approach for the implicit copula neural linear model, providing calibrated uncertainty estimates for autonomous driving predictions.

Findings

Variational inference achieves comparable accuracy to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

The method produces well-calibrated predictive densities and intervals.

It enhances explainability and overconfidence detection in end-to-end learners.

Abstract

End-to-end learners for autonomous driving are deep neural networks that predict the instantaneous steering angle directly from images of the ahead-lying street. These learners must provide reliable uncertainty estimates for their predictions in order to meet safety requirements and initiate a switch to manual control in areas of high uncertainty. Yet end-to-end learners typically only deliver point predictions, since distributional predictions are associated with large increases in training time or additional computational resources during prediction. To address this shortcoming we investigate efficient and scalable approximate inference for the implicit copula neural linear model of Klein, Nott and Smith (2021) in order to quantify uncertainty for the predictions of end-to-end learners. The result are densities for the steering angle that are marginally calibrated, i.e.~the average of the estimated densities equals the empirical distribution of steering angles. To ensure the scalability to large $n$ regimes, we develop efficient estimation based on variational inference as a fast alternative to computationally intensive, exact inference via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the accuracy and speed of the variational approach in comparison to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on two end-to-end learners trained for highway driving using the comma2k19 data set. The implicit copula neural linear model delivers accurate calibration, high-quality prediction intervals and allows to identify overconfident learners. Our approach also contributes to the explainability of black-box end-to-end learners, since predictive densities can be used to understand which steering actions the end-to-end learner sees as valid.