The role of new nuclear power in the UK's net-zero emissions energy system

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the economic viability of new nuclear power in the UK's net-zero energy system, highlighting conditions under which nuclear is cost-effective and proposing alternatives like storage and renewables.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of new nuclear's role in a decarbonized UK energy system, considering multiple sensitivity factors and alternative technologies.

Findings

New nuclear is cost-effective only under specific assumptions.

BECCS and long-term storage significantly reduce system costs.

High renewable penetration can be achieved without new nuclear.

Abstract

Swift and deep decarbonisation of electricity generation is central to enabling a timely transition to net-zero emission energy systems. While future power systems will likely be dominated by variable renewables (VRE), studies have identified a need for low-carbon dispatchable power such as nuclear. We use a cost-optimising power system model to examine the technoeconomic case for investment in new nuclear capacity in the UK's net-zero emissions energy system and consider four sensitivity dimensions: the capital cost of new nuclear, the availability of competing technologies, the expansion of interconnection and weather conditions. We conclude that new nuclear capacity is only cost-effective if ambitious cost and construction times are assumed, competing technologies are unavailable and interconnector expansion is not permitted. We find that BECCS and long-term storage could reduce electricity system costs by 5-21% and that synchronous condensers can provide cost-effective inertia in highly renewable systems with low amounts of synchronous generation. We show that a nearly 100% variable renewable system with very little fossil fuels, no new build nuclear and facilitated by long-term storage is the most cost-effective system design. This suggests that the current favourable UK Government policy towards nuclear is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.