Most Probable Transitions from Metastable to Oscillatory Regimes in a Carbon Cycle System

TL;DR

This paper investigates the most likely pathways for the ocean's carbonate system to shift from a stable metastable state to an oscillatory regime under small random fluctuations, providing early warning signs for climate-related changes.

Contribution

It introduces a geometric minimum action method to identify transition paths in the ocean's carbonate system, revealing two distinct transition patterns under varying external carbon inputs.

Findings

Identified two different transition patterns from metastable to oscillatory regimes.

Provided a method to predict early warning signs of drastic carbonate state changes.

Analyzed the impact of external carbon input rates on transition pathways.

Abstract

Global climate changes are related to the ocean's store of carbon. We study a carbonate system of the upper ocean, which has metastable and oscillatory regimes, under small random fluctuations. We calculate the most probable transition path via a geometric minimum action method in the context of the large deviations theory. By examining the most probable transition paths from metastable to oscillatory regimes for various external carbon input rates, we find two different transition patterns, which gives us an early warning sign for the dramatic change in the carbonate state of the ocean.