The Impact of Vaccine Hesitancy on Epidemic Spreading

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new epidemiological model incorporating vaccine hesitancy, demonstrating how varying confidence levels influence disease spread through analytical and simulation methods.

Contribution

It develops the SIRS-V$_\kappa$ model integrating vaccine confidence as a capacity constraint, providing novel insights into the effects of hesitancy on epidemic dynamics.

Findings

Higher vaccine hesitancy leads to larger epidemic outbreaks.

Vaccine confidence level affects the stability of disease-free equilibrium.

Analytical and simulation results show the critical role of hesitancy in epidemic control.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the world in an unprecedented way, causing enormous loss of life. Time and again, public health authorities have urged people to become vaccinated to protect themselves and mitigate the spread of the disease. However, vaccine hesitancy has stalled vaccination levels in the United States. This study explores the effect of vaccine hesitancy on the spread of disease by introducing an SIRS-V$_\kappa$ model, with compartments of susceptible (S), infected (I), recovered (R), and vaccinated (V). We leverage the concept of carrying capacity to account for vaccine hesitancy by defining a vaccine confidence level $\kappa$, which is the maximum number of people that will become vaccinated during the course of a disease. The inverse of vaccine confidence is vaccine hesitance, $(\frac{1}{\kappa})$. We explore the equilibria of the SIRS-V$_\kappa$ model and their stability, and illustrate the impact of vaccine hesitance on epidemic spread analytically and via simulations.