onlineforecast: An R package for adaptive and recursive forecasting

TL;DR

onlineforecast is an R package that facilitates adaptive, recursive online forecasting for dynamic systems, enabling real-time model updates and flexible integration of various modeling techniques.

Contribution

It introduces a generalized framework for online forecasting in R, supporting adaptive model fitting, model customization, and application across diverse fields.

Findings

Supports real-time model updates in operational settings

Enables integration of neural networks and other methods

Provides comprehensive examples in energy systems

Abstract

Systems that rely on forecasts to make decisions, e.g. control or energy trading systems, require frequent updates of the forecasts. Usually, the forecasts are updated whenever new observations become available, hence in an online setting. We present the R package onlineforecast that provides a generalized setup of data and models for online forecasting. It has functionality for time-adaptive fitting of dynamical and non-linear models. The setup is tailored to enable the effective use of forecasts as model inputs, e.g. numerical weather forecast. Users can create new models for their particular applications and run models in an operational setting. The package also allows users to easily replace parts of the setup, e.g. using neural network methods for estimation. The package comes with comprehensive vignettes and examples of online forecasting applications in energy systems, but can easily be applied for online forecasting in all fields.