Vaccine efficacy and SARS CoV 2 control in California and USA during the session 2020 2026: A modeling study

TL;DR

This study uses a mathematical model to evaluate how different COVID-19 vaccine efficacies impact pandemic control in California and the USA from 2020 to 2026, emphasizing the importance of high-efficacy vaccines and continuous vaccination efforts.

Contribution

It introduces a five-compartment mathematical model analyzing the effects of various vaccine efficacy rates on COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in California and the USA.

Findings

Higher vaccine efficacy shortens pandemic duration.

Frequent vaccination with high-efficacy vaccines can control the pandemic by late 2023.

Lower efficacy vaccines extend the pandemic into mid-2024.

Abstract

Besides maintaining health precautions, vaccination has been the only prevention from SARS-CoV-2, though no clinically proved 100% effective vaccine has been developed till date. At this stage, to withhold the debris of this pandemic, experts need to know the impact of the vaccine efficacy rate's threshold and how long this pandemic may extent with vaccines that have different efficacy rates. In this article, a mathematical model study has been done on the importance of vaccination and vaccine efficiency rate during an ongoing pandemic. We simulated a five compartment mathematical model to analyze the pandemic scenario in both California, and whole U.S. We considered four vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson and Johnson, which are being used rigorously to control the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition with two special cases: a vaccine with 100% efficacy rate and no vaccine under use. Both the infection and death rates are very high in California. Our model suggests that the pandemic situation in California will be under control in the last quartile of the year 2023 if frequent vaccination is continued with the Pfizer vaccine. During this time, six waves will happen from the beginning of the immunization where the case fatality and recovery rates will be 1.697% and 98.30%, respectively. However, according to the considered model, this period might be extended to the mid of 2024 when vaccines with lower efficacy rates are used. The more effective a vaccine, the less people suffer from this malign infection. Although specific groups of people get prioritized initially, mass vaccination is needed to control the spread of the disease.