How Complete Are Surveys for Nearby Transiting Hot Jupiters?

TL;DR

This study assesses the completeness of surveys for nearby transiting Hot Jupiters, revealing current detection gaps and proposing that TESS can significantly improve our understanding of their demographics.

Contribution

It quantifies the survey completeness for nearby HJs and predicts the potential of TESS to expand the known sample by an order of magnitude.

Findings

Known HJ sample is about 75% complete for G≤10.5.

Potential undiscovered HJs exist near the Galactic plane.

TESS can detect HJs up to G≈12.5, greatly increasing sample size.

Abstract

Hot Jupiters are a rare and interesting outcome of planet formation. Although more than 500 hot Jupiters (HJs) are known, most of them were discovered by a heterogeneous collection of surveys with selection biases that are difficult to quantify. Currently, our best knowledge of HJ demographics around FGK stars comes from the sample of $\approx40$ objects detected by the Kepler mission, which have a well-quantified selection function. Using the Kepler results, we simulate the characteristics of the population of nearby transiting HJs. A comparison between the known sample of nearby HJs and simulated magnitude-limited samples leads to four conclusions: (1) The known sample of HJs appears to be $\approx 75\%$ complete for stars brighter than Gaia $G\leq10.5$, falling to $\lesssim 50\%$ for $G\leq12$. (2) There are probably a few undiscovered HJs with host stars brighter than $G\approx10$ located within 10$^\circ$ of the Galactic plane. (3) The period and radius distributions of HJs may differ for F-type hosts (which dominate the nearby sample) and G-type hosts (which dominate the Kepler sample). (4) To obtain a magnitude-limited sample of HJs that is larger than the Kepler sample by an order of magnitude, the limiting magnitude should be approximately $G\approx12.5$. This magnitude limit is within the range for which NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) can easily detect HJs, presenting the opportunity to greatly expand our knowledge of hot Jupiter demographics.