A multiple criteria approach for constructing a pandemic impact assessment composite indicator: The case of Covid-19 in Portugal

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new composite indicator for assessing Covid-19 impact in Portugal, using a multi-criteria approach that incorporates stakeholder input and dynamic pandemic factors.

Contribution

It develops a novel pandemic impact assessment tool based on an additive multi-attribute value theory, integrating multidisciplinary expertise and stakeholder participation.

Findings

The PACI effectively captures pandemic impact variations in Portugal.

The approach incorporates dynamic factors like virus variants and vaccines.

Stakeholder involvement improves the indicator's relevance and robustness.

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused impressive damages and disruptions in social, economic, and health systems (among others), and posed unprecedented challenges to public health and policy/decision-makers concerning the design and implementation of measures to mitigate its strong negative impacts. The Portuguese health authorities are currently using some decision analysis-like techniques to assess the impact of this pandemic and implementing measures for each county, region, or the whole country. Such decision tools led to some criticism and many stakeholders asked for novel approaches, in particular those having in consideration dynamical changes in the pandemic behavior arising, e.g., from new virus variants or vaccines. A multidisciplinary team formed by researchers of the Covid-19 Committee of Instituto Superior T\'ecnico at Universidade de Lisboa (CCIST analysts team) and medical doctors from the Crisis Office of the Portuguese Medical Association (GCOM experts team) gathered efforts and worked together in order to propose a new tool to help politicians and decision-makers in the combat of the pandemic. This paper presents the main steps and elements, which led to the construction of a pandemic impact assessment composite indicator, applied to the particular case of {\sc{Covid-19}} in Portugal. A multiple criteria approach based on an additive multi-attribute value theory (MAVT) aggregation model was used to construct the pandemic assessment composite indicator (PACI). The parameters of the additive model were built through a sociotechnical co-constructive interactive process between CCIST and GCOM team members. The deck of cards method was the technical tool adopted to help in building the value functions and the assessment of the criteria weights.