Robust models of SARS-CoV-2 heterogeneity and control

TL;DR

This paper develops a comprehensive simulation framework to analyze SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, considering vaccination, NPIs, variants, and immunity waning, to evaluate control strategies and variant risks.

Contribution

It introduces a hierarchical, dynamic compartment model incorporating super-spreading, immunity waning, and variant risk assessment, advancing COVID-19 modeling capabilities.

Findings

Controller responding to effective reproduction number is more effective.

Risk measure $ ho^V$ varies with vaccination rates and population immunity.

Different population compositions influence variant-specific risks.

Abstract

In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction between three components: vaccination campaigns, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Additionally, immunity waning and vaccine boosters are modeled to account for their growing importance. New infections are generated according to a hierarchical model in which people have a random, individual infectiousness. The model thus includes super-spreading observed in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our simulation functions as a dynamic compartment model in which an individual's history of infection, vaccination, and possible reinfection all play a role in their resistance to further infections. We present a risk measure for each SARS-CoV-2 variant, $\rho^\V$, that accounts for the amount of resistance within a population and show how this risk changes as the vaccination rate increases. Furthermore, by considering different population compositions in terms of previous infection and type of vaccination, we can learn about variants which pose differential risk to different countries. Different control strategies are implemented which aim to both suppress COVID-19 outbreaks when they occur as well as relax restrictions when possible. We demonstrate that a controller that responds to the effective reproduction number in addition to case numbers is more efficient and effective in controlling new waves than monitoring case numbers alone. This is of interest as the majority of the public discussion and well-known statistics deal primarily with case numbers.