A new look at the anthropogenic global warming consensus: an econometric forecast based on the ARIMA model of paleoclimate series

TL;DR

This study uses an ARIMA model on paleoclimate data to project future climate scenarios, suggesting potential cooling and challenging the prevailing anthropogenic global warming consensus.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic paleotemperature modeling approach to provide a long-term historical perspective on climate change, contrasting with current consensus.

Findings

ARIMA model indicates potential temperature reduction over 100 years

Results suggest a probable cooling trend contrary to mainstream consensus

Adds a statistical paleoclimate perspective to climate change debates

Abstract

This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this purpose. The results show that the parameter estimates of the model were below what is established by the anthropogenic current and governmental organs, such as the IPCC (UN), considering a 100-year scenario, which suggests a period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling. Thus, we hope with this study to contribute to the discussion by adding a statistical element of paleoclimate in counterpoint to the current scientific consensus and place the debate in a long-term historical dimension, in line with other existing research on the topic.