Machine Learning-Based COVID-19 Patients Triage Algorithm using Patient-Generated Health Data from Nationwide Multicenter Database

TL;DR

This paper develops a machine learning-based severity assessment model for COVID-19 patients using nationwide data, enabling self-assessment and efficient triage through accessible personal data and high-performance classification.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel COVID-19 severity assessment model trained on nationwide data, demonstrating superior performance and practical applicability for self-monitoring and triage.

Findings

Achieved high model precision of 0.923 and AUROC of 0.950.

Identified key variables affecting COVID-19 severity.

Model outperforms conventional risk assessment methods.

Abstract

A prompt severity assessment model of patients confirmed for having infectious diseases could enable efficient diagnosis while alleviating burden on the medical system. This study aims to develop a SARS-CoV-2 severity assessment model and establish a medical system that allows patients to check the severity of their cases and informs them to visit the appropriate clinic center based on past treatment data of other patients with similar severity levels. This paper provides the development processes of a severity assessment model using machine learning techniques and its application on SARS-CoV-2 patients. The proposed model is trained on a nationwide dataset provided by a Korean government agency and only requires patients' basic personal data, allowing them to judge the severity of their own cases. After modeling, the boosting-based decision tree model was selected as the classifier while mortality rate was interpreted as the probability score. The dataset was collected from all Korean citizens who were confirmed with COVID-19 between February, 2020 and July, 2021. The experiments achieved high model performance with an approximate precision of $0{\cdot}923$ and AUROC score of $0{\cdot}950$ [$95$% Tolerance Interval $0{\cdot}940$-$0{\cdot}958$, $95$% Confidence Interval $0{\cdot}949$-$0{\cdot}950$]. Moreover, our experiments identified the most important variables affecting the severity in the model via sensitivity analysis. The prompt severity assessment model for managing infectious people has been attained through using a nationwide dataset. It has demonstrated its superior performance by surpassing that of conventional risk assessments. With the model's high performance and easily accessible features, the triage algorithm is expected to be particularly useful when patients monitor their health status by themselves through smartphone applications.