Modeling the dynamic variability of sub-relativistic outer radiation belt electron fluxes using machine learning

TL;DR

This paper develops neural network models that accurately simulate the dynamic behavior of sub-relativistic electron fluxes in Earth's outer radiation belt using only solar wind and geomagnetic data, aiding space weather prediction.

Contribution

The paper introduces ORIENT-M, a neural network model that predicts electron flux variations in the outer radiation belt based solely on solar wind and geomagnetic indices, demonstrating high accuracy and applicability.

Findings

High R^2 (0.78-0.92) in flux prediction during geomagnetic storms.

Successfully captures electron dynamics such as intensifications and dropouts.

Model framework adaptable to other plasma parameters in Earth's magnetosphere.

Abstract

We present a set of neural network models that reproduce the dynamics of electron fluxes in the range of 50 keV $\sim$ 1 MeV in the outer radiation belt. The Outer Radiation belt Electron Neural net model for Medium energy electrons(ORIENT-M) uses only solar wind conditions and geomagnetic indices as input. The models are trained on electron flux data from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument onboard Van Allen Probes, and they can reproduce the dynamic variations of electron fluxes in different energy channels. The model results show high coefficient of determination $R^2 \sim $ 0.78-0.92 on the test dataset, an out-of-sample 30-day period from February 25 to March 25 in 2017, when a geomagnetic storm took place, as well as an out-of-sample one year period after March 2018. In addition, the models are able to capture electron dynamics such as intensifications, decays, dropouts, and the Magnetic Local Time (MLT) dependence of the lower energy ($\sim <$ 100 keV )electron fluxes during storms. The models have reliable prediction capability and can be used for a wide range of space weather applications. The general framework of building our model is not limited to radiation belt fluxes and could be used to build machine learning models for a variety of other plasma parameters in the Earth's magnetosphere.