An Improved Approach to Orbital Determination and Prediction of Near-Earth Asteroids: Computer Simulation, Modeling and Test Measurements

TL;DR

This study combines analytical astrophysics methods with observational data from a test telescope to accurately determine the orbit of near-Earth asteroid 12538-1998 OH, assessing its impact risk through simulations and statistical analysis.

Contribution

It introduces an improved orbital determination approach using Gauss's Method, Monte Carlo simulations, and test measurements to enhance accuracy in predicting asteroid trajectories.

Findings

Successful orbit calculation of asteroid 12538-1998 OH

Quantified uncertainties and deviations in orbital parameters

Predicted impact probability with improved reliability

Abstract

In this article, theory-based analytical methodologies of astrophysics employed in the modern era are suitably operated alongside a test research-grade telescope to image and determine the orbit of a near-earth asteroid from original observations, measurements, and calculations. Subsequently, its intrinsic orbital path has been calculated including the chance it would likely impact Earth in the time ahead. More so specifically, this case-study incorporates the most effective, feasible, and novel Gauss's Method in order to maneuver the orbital plane components of a planetesimal, further elaborating and extending our probes on a selected near-earth asteroid (namely the 12538-1998 OH) through the observational data acquired over a six week period. Utilizing the CCD (Charge Coupled Device) snapshots captured, we simulate and calculate the orbit of our asteroid as outlined in quite detailed explanations. The uncertainties and deviations from the expected values are derived to reach a judgement whether our empirical findings are truly reliable and representative measurements by partaking a statistical analysis based systematic approach. Concluding the study by narrating what could have caused such discrepancy of findings in the first place, if any, measures are put forward that could be undertaken to improve the test-case for future investigations. Following the calculation of orbital elements and their uncertainties using Monte Carlo analysis, simulations were executed with various sample celestial bodies to derive a plausible prediction regarding the fate of Asteroid 1998 OH. Finally, the astrometric and photometric data, after their precise verification, were officially submitted to the Minor Planet Center: an organization hosted by the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard and Smithsonian and funded by NASA, for keeping track of the asteroid's potential trajectories.