Comparison of power sector models by analyzing the impact of modeling features on optimal capacity expansion

TL;DR

This study compares six power sector models to understand how different assumptions and modeling features influence optimal capacity expansion decisions for renewable and flexible energy technologies.

Contribution

It systematically analyzes the impact of modeling assumptions on capacity expansion outcomes across various simplified use cases.

Findings

Deviations in assumptions on technology availability cause significant differences in results.

Fixed energy-to-power ratios in storage alter the balance between short- and long-duration storage.

Limited dispatch foresight leads to higher capacity investments compared to linear optimization.

Abstract

The transition towards decarbonized energy systems requires the expansion of renewable and flexibility technologies in power sectors. In a model comparison, we examine the optimal expansion of such technologies with six capacity expansion power system models. The technologies under investigation include base- and peak-load power plants, electricity storage, and transmission. We define four highly simplified and harmonized use cases that focus on the expansion of only one or two specific technologies to isolate their effects on model results. We find that deviating assumptions on limited availability factors of technologies cause technology-specific deviations between optimal capacity expansion in models in almost all use cases. Fixed energy-to-power-ratios of storage can entirely change model optimal expansion outcomes, especially shifting the ratio between short- and long-duration storage. Fixed initial and end storage levels can impact the seasonal use of long-duration storage. Models with a pre-ordered dispatch structure significantly deviate from linear optimization models, as limited foresight and flexibility can lead to higher capacity investments. A simplified net transfer capacity approach underestimates the need for grid infrastructure compared to a more detailed direct current load flow approach. We further find deviations in model results of optimal storage and transmission capacity expansion between regions and link them to variable renewable energy generation and demand characteristics. We expect that the general effects identified in our stylized setting also hold in more detailed model applications, although they may be less visible there.