Learning To Describe Player Form in The MLB

TL;DR

This paper introduces a contrastive learning framework to create player form representations in MLB, capturing impact on play beyond traditional statistics, with potential for improved game outcome predictions.

Contribution

It presents a novel contrastive learning approach to describe player form in MLB, capturing impact on play not reflected in traditional sabermetrics.

Findings

Form representations contain unique impact information

Clusters of player forms differ from traditional statistics

Potential to predict game outcomes using embeddings

Abstract

Major League Baseball (MLB) has a storied history of using statistics to better understand and discuss the game of baseball, with an entire discipline of statistics dedicated to the craft, known as sabermetrics. At their core, all sabermetrics seek to quantify some aspect of the game, often a specific aspect of a player's skill set - such as a batter's ability to drive in runs (RBI) or a pitcher's ability to keep batters from reaching base (WHIP). While useful, such statistics are fundamentally limited by the fact that they are derived from an account of what happened on the field, not how it happened. As a first step towards alleviating this shortcoming, we present a novel, contrastive learning-based framework for describing player form in the MLB. We use form to refer to the way in which a player has impacted the course of play in their recent appearances. Concretely, a player's form is described by a 72-dimensional vector. By comparing clusters of players resulting from our form representations and those resulting from traditional abermetrics, we demonstrate that our form representations contain information about how players impact the course of play, not present in traditional, publicly available statistics. We believe these embeddings could be utilized to predict both in-game and game-level events, such as the result of an at-bat or the winner of a game.