Predicting the Magnetic Fields of a Stealth CME Detected by Parker Solar Probe at 0.5 AU

TL;DR

This paper presents a novel approach to predict the magnetic fields of stealth CMEs using observational data and modeling, achieving promising agreement with in-situ measurements at 0.5 AU.

Contribution

It introduces the first attempt at predicting stealth CME magnetic fields from source estimation to in-situ validation, advancing space weather forecasting capabilities.

Findings

Predicted magnetic fields closely match in-situ measurements.

Successful estimation of CME source region using off-limb observations.

First modeling effort to connect stealth CME origins with in-situ data at 0.5 AU.

Abstract

Stealth coronal mass ejection (CMEs) are eruptions from the Sun that are not associated with appreciable low-coronal signatures. Because they often cannot be linked to a well-defined source region on the Sun, analysis of their initial magnetic configuration and eruption dynamics is particularly problematic. In this manuscript, we address this issue by undertaking the first attempt at predicting the magnetic fields of a stealth CME that erupted in 2020 June from the Earth-facing Sun. We estimate its source region with the aid of off-limb observations from a secondary viewpoint and photospheric magnetic field extrapolations. We then employ the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) modelling suite to evaluate its early evolution and forward-model its magnetic fields up to Parker Solar Probe, which detected the CME in situ at a heliocentric distance of 0.5 AU. We compare our hindcast prediction with in-situ measurements and a set of flux rope reconstructions, obtaining encouraging agreement on arrival time, spacecraft crossing location, and magnetic field profiles. This work represents a first step towards reliable understanding and forecasting of the magnetic configuration of stealth CMEs and slow, streamer-blowout events.