Quantile-based fuzzy clustering of multivariate time series in the frequency domain

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new fuzzy clustering method for multivariate time series using quantile-based spectral features, PCA, and fuzzy C-means, outperforming existing methods in simulations and real data applications.

Contribution

The paper proposes a novel quantile-based fuzzy clustering procedure for multivariate time series in the frequency domain, combining spectral features, PCA, and fuzzy clustering algorithms.

Findings

Outperforms existing clustering methods across various models.

Effectively captures overlapping series in clusters.

Successfully applied to air quality and financial data.

Abstract

A novel procedure to perform fuzzy clustering of multivariate time series generated from different dependence models is proposed. Different amounts of dissimilarity between the generating models or changes on the dynamic behaviours over time are some arguments justifying a fuzzy approach, where each series is associated to all the clusters with specific membership levels. Our procedure considers quantile-based cross-spectral features and consists of three stages: (i) each element is characterized by a vector of proper estimates of the quantile cross-spectral densities, (ii) principal component analysis is carried out to capture the main differences reducing the effects of the noise, and (iii) the squared Euclidean distance between the first retained principal components is used to perform clustering through the standard fuzzy C-means and fuzzy C-medoids algorithms. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a broad simulation study where several types of generating processes are considered, including linear, nonlinear and dynamic conditional correlation models. Assessment is done in two different ways: by directly measuring the quality of the resulting fuzzy partition and by taking into account the ability of the technique to determine the overlapping nature of series located equidistant from well-defined clusters. The procedure is compared with the few alternatives suggested in the literature, substantially outperforming all of them whatever the underlying process and the evaluation scheme. Two specific applications involving air quality and financial databases illustrate the usefulness of our approach.