Epidemic Models for COVID-19 during the First Wave from February to May 2020: a Methodological Review

TL;DR

This paper provides a comprehensive methodological review of early COVID-19 epidemic models from February to May 2020, analyzing their types, intervention strategies, data, and estimation methods.

Contribution

It systematically reviews 80 studies, highlighting the main modeling approaches, data characteristics, and intervention modeling used during the initial COVID-19 outbreak.

Findings

Predominance of phenomenological, compartmental, and individual-level models.

Analysis of intervention strategies incorporated in early models.

Provision of a digital companion for data and model access.

Abstract

We review epidemiological models for the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic during the early months of the outbreak: from February to May 2020. The aim is to propose a methodological review that highlights the following characteristics: (i) the epidemic propagation models, (ii) the modeling of intervention strategies, (iii) the models and estimation procedures of the epidemic parameters and (iv) the characteristics of the data used. We finally selected 80 articles from open access databases based on criteria such as the theoretical background, the reproducibility, the incorporation of interventions strategies, etc. It mainly resulted to phenomenological, compartmental and individual-level models. A digital companion including an online sheet, a Kibana interface and a markdown document is proposed. Finally, this work provides an opportunity to witness how the scientific community reacted to this unique situation.