COVID-19 epidemic control using short-term lockdowns for collective gain

TL;DR

This paper models short-term COVID-19 lockdown strategies using sliding-mode control theory, demonstrating their potential to effectively contain the epidemic while minimizing economic and social disruption.

Contribution

It provides a rigorous mathematical framework for short-term lockdowns, extending the Australian model, and offers insights into optimal timing and duration based on epidemic data.

Findings

Short-term lockdowns can effectively control COVID-19 spread.

Alternating lockdown periods with free intervals can maintain healthcare thresholds.

Model predictions align with data from Italy for practical implementation.

Abstract

While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point for any government is to understand, on the basis of the epidemic curve, the right temporal instant to set up a lockdown and then to remove it. Different strategies are being adopted with distinct shades of intensity. USA and Europe tend to introduce restrictions of considerable temporal length. They vary in time: a severe lockdown may be reached and then gradually relaxed. An interesting alternative is the Australian model where short and sharp responses have repeatedly tackled the virus and allowed people a return to near normalcy. After a few positive cases are detected, a lockdown is immediately set. In this paper we show that the Australian model can be generalized and given a rigorous mathematical analysis, casting strategies of the type short-term pain for collective gain in the context of sliding-mode control, an important branch of nonlinear control theory. This allows us to gain important insights regarding how to implement short-term lockdowns, obtaining a better understanding of their merits and possible limitations. Our model predicts the duration of the severe lockdown to be set to maintain e.g. the number of people in intensive care under a certain threshold. After tuning our strategy exploiting data collected in Italy, it turns out that COVID-19 epidemic could be e.g. controlled by alternating one or two weeks of complete lockdown with one or two months of freedom, respectively. Control strategies of this kind, where the lockdown's duration is well circumscribed, could be important also to alleviate coronavirus impact on economy.