The Potential of Sufficiency Measures to Achieve a Fully Renewable Energy System -- A case study for Germany

TL;DR

This study assesses how behavioral sufficiency measures can significantly reduce energy demand and costs in Germany's transition to a fully renewable energy system, highlighting the heating sector's potential.

Contribution

It quantifies the impact of sufficiency measures on energy demand and system costs, an area often overlooked compared to efficiency strategies.

Findings

Final energy demand could decrease by up to 20.5%.

System costs could be reduced by 11.3% to 25.6%.

Heating sector offers the greatest potential for sufficiency measures.

Abstract

The paper provides energy system-wide estimates of the effects sufficiency measures in different sectors can have on energy supply and system costs. In distinction to energy efficiency, we define sufficiency as behavioral changes to reduce useful energy without significantly reducing utility, for example by adjusting thermostats. By reducing demand, sufficiency measures are a potentially decisive but seldomly considered factor to support the transformation towards a decarbonized energy system. Therefore, this paper addresses the following question: What is the potential of sufficiency measures and what is their impacts on the supply side of a 100% renewable energy system? For this purpose, an extensive literature review is conducted to obtain estimates for the effects of different sufficiency measures on final energy demand in Germany. Afterwards, the impact of these measures on the supply side and system costs is quantified using a bottom-up planning model of a renewable energy system. Results indicate that final energy could be reduced by up to 20.5% and as a result cost reduction between 11.3% to 25.6% are conceivable. The greatest potential for sufficiency measures was identified in the heating sector.