Extreme events in globally coupled chaotic maps

TL;DR

This paper investigates extreme events in a globally coupled chaotic map network, analyzing their statistical properties, underlying mechanisms, and forecasting them using deep learning techniques like LSTM.

Contribution

It introduces a novel analysis of extreme events in coupled chaotic maps, characterizes their statistical signatures, and demonstrates effective forecasting with deep learning models.

Findings

Extreme events follow Generalized Extreme Value and Weibull distributions.

On-off intermittency underpins the formation of extreme events.

LSTM models can accurately forecast extreme chaotic bursts.

Abstract

Understanding and predicting uncertain things are the central themes of scientific evolution. Human beings revolve around these fears of uncertainties concerning various aspects like a global pandemic, health, finances, to name but a few. Dealing with this unavoidable part of life is far tougher due to the chaotic nature of these unpredictable activities. In the present article, we consider a global network of identical chaotic maps, which splits into two different clusters, despite the interaction between all nodes are uniform. The stability analysis of the spatially homogeneous chaotic solutions provides a critical coupling strength, before which we anticipate such partial synchronization. The distance between these two chaotic synchronized populations often deviates more than eight times of standard deviation from its long-term average. The probability density function of these highly deviated values fits well with the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Meanwhile, the distribution of recurrence time intervals between extreme events resembles the Weibull distribution. The existing literature helps us to characterize such events as extreme events using the significant height. These extremely high fluctuations are less frequent in terms of their occurrence. We determine numerically a range of coupling strength for these extremely large but recurrent events. On-off intermittency is the responsible mechanism underlying the formation of such extreme events. Besides understanding the generation of such extreme events and their statistical signature, we furnish forecasting these events using the powerful deep learning algorithms of an artificial recurrent neural network. This Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) can offer handy one-step forecasting of these chaotic intermittent bursts. We also ensure the robustness of this forecasting model with two hundred hidden cells in each LSTM layer.