Mapping of Covid-19 Risk Factors of Cities and Regencies in Indonesia during the Initial Stages of the Pandemic

TL;DR

This study identifies key risk factors influencing the initial spread of COVID-19 in Indonesian cities and regencies, highlighting the roles of population density, mobility, and public exposure in pandemic risk assessment.

Contribution

It develops a composite risk factor model for COVID-19 in Indonesian regencies using multivariate analysis, providing insights into regional vulnerability during the early pandemic stages.

Findings

Strong correlation between risk factors and COVID-19 cases

High risk scores in large regencies, especially in Java

Population density and mobility significantly impact risk levels

Abstract

The aims of this study are to identify risk factors and develop a composite risk factor of initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic in regency level in Indonesia. Three risk factors, i.e., exposure, transmission and susceptibility, are investigated. Multivariate regression, and Canonical correlation analysis are implemented to measure the association between the risk factors and the initial stage of reported COVID -19 cases. The result reveals strong correlation between the composite risk factor and the number of COVID-19 cases at the initial stage of pandemic. The influence of population density, percentage of people commuting, international exposures, and number of public places which prone to COVID-19 transmission are observed. Large regencies and cities, mostly in Java, have high risk score. The largest risk score owned by regencies that are part of the Jakarta Metropolitan Area.