Rainfall-runoff prediction using a Gustafson-Kessel clustering based Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy model

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel rainfall-runoff prediction model using a Gustafson-Kessel clustering-based Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy system, demonstrating improved accuracy over other clustering methods through empirical validation.

Contribution

The paper develops a new GK clustering-based TS Fuzzy model for rainfall-runoff prediction and compares its performance with Fuzzy C-Means and Subtractive Clustering methods.

Findings

GK clustering outperforms FCM and SC in prediction accuracy.

The model effectively predicts runoff using observed rainfall and basin outlet data.

Validation indices confirm the model's robustness and reliability.

Abstract

A rainfall-runoff model predicts surface runoff either using a physically-based approach or using a systems-based approach. Takagi-Sugeno (TS) Fuzzy models are systems-based approaches and a popular modeling choice for hydrologists in recent decades due to several advantages and improved accuracy in prediction over other existing models. In this paper, we propose a new rainfall-runoff model developed using Gustafson-Kessel (GK) clustering-based TS Fuzzy model. We present comparative performance measures of GK algorithms with two other clustering algorithms: (i) Fuzzy C-Means (FCM), and (ii)Subtractive Clustering (SC). Our proposed TS Fuzzy model predicts surface runoff using: (i) observed rainfall in a drainage basin and (ii) previously observed precipitation flow in the basin outlet. The proposed model is validated using the rainfall-runoff data collected from the sensors installed on the campus of the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur. The optimal number of rules of the proposed model is obtained by different validation indices. A comparative study of four performance criteria: RootMean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Efficiency (CE), Volumetric Error (VE), and Correlation Coefficient of Determination(R) have been quantitatively demonstrated for each clustering algorithm.