A Multi-Task Learning Framework for COVID-19 Monitoring and Prediction of PPE Demand in Community Health Centres

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multi-task learning framework to simultaneously predict COVID-19 spread and PPE demand in community health centers, aiding in better resource planning and disease mitigation.

Contribution

It presents a novel multi-task learning approach for joint prediction of virus spread and PPE needs, addressing gaps in existing agent-based, machine learning, and mathematical models.

Findings

Government actions significantly influence virus spread

Human factors are key determinants of COVID-19 transmission

The model effectively predicts PPE demand and virus effects

Abstract

Currently, the world seeks to find appropriate mitigation techniques to control and prevent the spread of the new SARS-CoV-2. In our paper herein, we present a peculiar Multi-Task Learning framework that jointly predicts the effect of SARS-CoV-2 as well as Personal-Protective-Equipment consumption in Community Health Centres for a given populace. Predicting the effect of the virus (SARS-CoV-2), via studies and analyses, enables us to understand the nature of SARS-CoV- 2 with reference to factors that promote its growth and spread. Therefore, these foster widespread awareness; and the populace can become more proactive and cautious so as to mitigate the spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID- 19). Furthermore, understanding and predicting the demand for Personal Protective Equipment promotes the efficiency and safety of healthcare workers in Community Health Centres. Owing to the novel nature and strains of SARS-CoV-2, relatively few literature and research exist in this regard. These existing literature have attempted to solve the problem statement(s) using either Agent-based Models, Machine Learning Models, or Mathematical Models. In view of this, our work herein adds to existing literature via modeling our problem statements as Multi- Task Learning problems. Results from our research indicate that government actions and human factors are the most significant determinants that influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2.