Simulating COVID19 Transmission From Observed Movement: An Agent-Based Model of Classroom Dispersion

TL;DR

This study uses high-resolution RFID data to simulate COVID-19 spread in classrooms, revealing how reduced density and teacher vaccination can significantly lower infection rates.

Contribution

It introduces an agent-based model integrating real-time movement data to predict classroom COVID-19 transmission, enhancing understanding of intervention impacts.

Findings

Reducing classroom density by half decreases infection proportion by 18.2%.

Teacher vaccination reduces overall infection proportion by 25.3%.

Simulation informs public policy on classroom safety measures.

Abstract

Current models of COVID-19 transmission predict infection from reported or assumed interactions. Here we leverage high-resolution observations of interaction to simulate infectious processes. Ultra-Wide Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems were employed to track the real-time physical movements and directional orientation of children and their teachers in 4 preschool classes over a total of 34 observations. An agent-based transmission model combined observed interaction patterns (individual distance and orientation) with CDC-published risk guidelines to estimate the transmission impact of an infected patient zero attending class on the proportion of overall infections, the average transmission rate, and the time lag to the appearance of symptomatic individuals. These metrics highlighted the prophylactic role of decreased classroom density and teacher vaccinations. Reduction of classroom density to half capacity was associated with an 18.2% drop in overall infection proportion while teacher vaccination receipt was associated with a 25.3%drop. Simulation results of classroom transmission dynamics may inform public policy in the face of COVID-19 and similar infectious threats.