Sunda-arc seismicity: continuing increase of high-magnitude earthquakes since 2004

TL;DR

This study analyzes 56 years of seismic data in the Sunda-arc, revealing a persistent increase in high-magnitude earthquakes since 2004 and suggesting a continuing trend of larger events in the region.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive temporal analysis of large earthquakes in the Sunda-arc, highlighting an increasing trend and potential implications for future seismic activity.

Findings

Increase in annual large-magnitude earthquakes since 2004

Anomalies in Gutenberg-Richter b value linked to 2004 Sumatra earthquake

Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average predicts continued increase

Abstract

Spatial and temporal data for earthquakes with magnitude M greater than or equal to 6.5 can provide crucial information about the seismic history and potential for large earthquakes in a region. We analyzed approximately 313,500 events that occurred in the Sunda-arc region during the last 56 years, from 1964 to 2020, reported by the International Seismological Center. We report a persistent increase in the annual number of the events with mb greater than or equal to 6.5. We tested this increase against the null hypothesis and discarded the possibility of the increase being due to random groupings. The trend given by Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average suggests continuing increase of such large-magnitude events in the region during the next decade. At the same time, the computed Gutenberg Richter b value shows anomalies that can be related to the occurrence of the mega 2004 Sumatra earthquake, and to possible state of high tectonic stress in the eastern parts of the region.