Goal scoring in Premier League with Poisson regression

TL;DR

This paper applies Poisson regression to analyze how various match factors influence goal scoring in the highly competitive Premier League.

Contribution

It introduces a Poisson regression model to quantify the impact of specific match variables on goal counts in Premier League games.

Findings

Shots on target significantly increase goal likelihood.

Red cards decrease home team goal chances.

Corners have a positive but less significant effect.

Abstract

Premier League is known as one of the most competitive football league in the world, hence there are many goals are scored here every match. Which are the factors that affect to the number of goal scored in each match? We use Poisson regression to find out the relation between many factors as shots on target, corners, red cards, to the goals home team can score in their match.