Estimating Active Cases of COVID-19
Javier \'Alvarez, Carlos Baquero, Elisa Cabana, Jaya Prakash Champati,, Antonio Fern\'andez Anta, Davide Frey, Augusto Garc\'ia-Ag\'undez, Chryssis, Georgiou, Mathieu Goessens, Harold Hern\'andez, Rosa Lillo, Raquel Menezes,, Ra\'ul Moreno, Nicolas Nicolaou, Oluwasegun Ojo
TL;DR
This paper introduces methods to estimate active COVID-19 cases using official data and surveys, addressing challenges in data accuracy due to testing limitations and infrastructure issues.
Contribution
It presents novel estimation techniques that incorporate survey data as an alternative to traditional testing-based counts.
Findings
Survey data can effectively supplement official case counts.
The proposed methods improve estimation accuracy in low-testing settings.
Active case estimates are more reliable with combined data sources.
Abstract
Having accurate and timely data on confirmed active COVID-19 cases is challenging, since it depends on testing capacity and the availability of an appropriate infrastructure to perform tests and aggregate their results. In this paper, we propose methods to estimate the number of active cases of COVID-19 from the official data (of confirmed cases and fatalities) and from survey data. We show that the latter is a viable option in countries with reduced testing capacity or suboptimal infrastructures.
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