Avoiding the "Great Filter": A Projected Timeframe for Human Expansion Off-World

TL;DR

This paper models the timeline for human off-world expansion based on technological and historical data, projecting when humanity can colonize other planets and ensure its long-term survival beyond Earth.

Contribution

It introduces a data-driven model predicting specific timeframes for human space missions and colonization, emphasizing the importance of sustained space exploration for human survival.

Findings

First Mars landings before the end of the 21st century

Interstellar missions possible within the 23rd century

Intragalactic missions feasible by the end of the 24th century

Abstract

A foundational model has been developed based on trends built from empirical data of space exploration and computing power through the first six plus decades of the Space Age which projects earliest possible launch dates for human-crewed missions from cis-lunar space to selected Solar System and interstellar destinations. The model uses computational power, expressed as transistors per microprocessor, as a key broadly limiting factor for deep space missions' reach and complexity. The goal of this analysis is to provide a projected timeframe for humanity to become a multi-world species through off-world colonization, and in so doing all but guarantees the long-term survival of the human race from natural and human-caused calamities that could befall life on Earth. Be-ginning with the development and deployment of the first nuclear weapons near the end of World War II, humanity entered a 'Window of Peril' which will not be safely closed until robust off-world colonies become a reality. Our findings suggest the first human-crewed missions to land on Mars, selected Asteroid Belt objects, and selected moons of Jupiter and Saturn can occur before the end of the 21st century. Launches of human-crewed interstellar missions to exoplanet destinations within roughly 40 lightyears of the Solar System are seen as possible during the 23rd century and launch of intragalactic missions by the end of the 24th century. An aggressive and sustained space exploration program, which includes colonization, is thus seen as critical to the long-term survival of the human race.