a dynamo-based prediction of solar cycle 25

TL;DR

This paper applies a dynamo-based model, previously successful for Cycle 24, to predict Cycle 25's amplitude, suggesting it will be slightly stronger and not lead to a grand minimum, thus testing the model's validity.

Contribution

It demonstrates the application of a dynamo-based prediction method to Cycle 25, verifying its repeatability and effectiveness in forecasting solar cycle amplitudes.

Findings

Cycle 25 predicted to be about 10% stronger than Cycle 24

Prediction indicates no grand solar minimum in Cycle 25

Model's success depends on polar field measurements around cycle minimum

Abstract

Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence there are practical needs to know the amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25. The dynamo-based solar cycle predictions not only provide predictions, but also offer an effective way to evaluate our understanding of the solar cycle. In this article we apply the method of the first successful dynamo-based prediction developed for Cycle 24 to the prediction of Cycle 25, so that we can verify whether the previous success is repeatable. The prediction shows that Cycle 25 would be about 10% stronger than Cycle 24 with an amplitude of 126 (international sunspot number version 2.0). The result suggests that Cycle 25 will not enter the Maunder-like grand solar minimum as suggested by some publications. Solar behavior in about four to five years will give a verdict whether the prediction method captures the key mechanism for solar cycle variability, which is assumed as the polar field around the cycle minimum in the model.