Stochasticity of infectious outbreaks and consequences for optimal interventions

TL;DR

This paper models the stochastic dynamics of local infectious outbreaks, deriving analytical probabilities of containment based on contact network statistics, and proposes targeted testing protocols to improve outbreak control.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic outbreak model incorporating contact network structure and initial conditions, and suggests contact-based testing strategies for better containment.

Findings

Analytical expression for outbreak containment probability.

Contact-based testing outperforms random testing.

Efficacy depends on network and epidemiological parameters.

Abstract

Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals, schools, and food producing plants, remain focal points of local outbreaks. Here we develop a model for the stochastic outbreak dynamics in such local communities. We derive analytical expressions for the probability of containment of the outbreak, which is complementary to the probability of seeding a deterministically growing epidemic. This probability depends on the statistics of the intra-community contact network and the initial conditions, in particular, on the contact degree of patient zero. Based on this model, we suggest surveillance protocols by which individuals are tested proportionally to their degree in the contact network. We characterize the efficacy of contact-based protocols as a function of the epidemiological and the contact network parameters, and show numerically that such protocols outperform random testing.