Escaping from air pollution: The psychological process of domestic migration intention among urban people

TL;DR

This study investigates the psychological factors influencing urban residents' migration intentions due to air pollution in Hanoi, Vietnam, highlighting demographic predictors and the limited effect of perceived alternatives on migration decisions.

Contribution

It applies the Bayesian Mindsponge Framework to model psychological processes behind migration intentions in a highly polluted urban setting, revealing key demographic and perceptual factors.

Findings

Migration intention negatively linked to air quality satisfaction

Perceived availability of better alternatives moderates migration intention

High migration costs diminish the effect of perceived alternatives

Abstract

Rapid urbanization with poor city planning has resulted in severe air pollution in low- and middle-income countries' urban areas. Given the adverse impacts of air pollution, many responses have been taken, including migration to another city. The current study explores the psychological process and demographic predictors of migration intention among urban people in Hanoi, Vietnam - one of the most polluted capital cities in the world. The Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) was used to construct the model and perform Bayesian analysis on a stratified random sampling dataset of 475 urban people. We found that the migration intention was negatively associated with the individual's satisfaction with air quality. The association was moderated by the perceived availability of a better alternative (or nearby city with better air quality). However, the high migration cost due to geographical distance made the moderation effect of the perceived availability of a better alternative negligible. Moreover, it was also found that male and young people were more likely to migrate, but the brain drain hypothesis was not validated. The results hint that without air pollution mitigation measures, the dislocation of economic forces might occur and hinder sustainable urban development. Therefore, collaborative actions among levels of government, with the semi-conducting principle at heart, are recommended to reduce air pollution.